[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N60W 9N61W 5N61W...FROM
THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
BARBADOS...TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 62W
AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W TO 8N15W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N17W TO 4N22W AND 4N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1S36W TO 1S40W 2S45W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W
AND 1S53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
2W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE WEST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND THE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE IN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN FLORIDA NEAR VALPARAISO...
MARY ESTHER...AND DESTIN/FORT WALTON BEACH. THE NAVAL
AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE SARASOTA/
BRADENTON AIRPORT...AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS
OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...KGUL...KEIR...
AND KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N66W
IN VENEZUELA...TO 9N74W IN COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH...TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N86W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 8N81W
IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
AND BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...FROM 7N TO
10N IN PANAMA AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND
THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 83W...AND ALONG THE
COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE
EASTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO AND 77W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. A TROUGH IS PRESENT
IN THE FORECAST AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND
FLOW FORECAST IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER
TO HELP TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N52W
TO 32N52W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT IS AROUND THAT AREA TO THE SOUTH IS NORTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N66W...CURVING TO 31N71W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 31N71W BEYOND 32N72W.
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 26N62W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N52W 23N60W 20N66W...INCLUDING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF
FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N34W 15N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N47W 25N44W 23N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net