[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N53W 9N55W 6N54W AT THE
COAST OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO
4N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND
33W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W
FROM 20N IN MEXICO BEYOND THE BORDER OF EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS
STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 29N70W...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W
28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 91W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN MOBILE
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA...IN DESTIN/
FORT WALTON BEACH...PUNTA GORDA...FORT MYERS...AND IN
NAPLES. TALLAHASSEE IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...AND KDLP.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 17N78W
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO
6N76W...ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL PANAMA...TO 9N88W AND
BEYOND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST FROM 4N TO 8N IN PANAMA...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 7N82W OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 17N78W TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 28N60W TO 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 30N64W 26N65W AND TO 24N80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 32N67W 32N72W...
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND 32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N66W
AND 28N74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N41W 18N51W AND 17N59W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N51W 23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W 28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W
IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 24N43W AND 10N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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