[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 2N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
COINCIDING WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AT 315K. TOTAL PRECIPITATABLE WATER AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND CLOUDINESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
WIDELY SCATTTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-
53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
6N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N20W TO 2N32W TO 1N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIONIS FROM 0N-
4N BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING
AND 10-15 KT SW FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA....AND W CUBA. IN ADDITION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-97W MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER TEXAS
AND N MEXICO...AND THE S GULF S OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER S FLORIDA... THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA... AND
COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA E OF 81W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO
EXTEND OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO FORM
DUE MOSTLY TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 27N46W. AN EMBEDDED 1020 MB LOW IS ON
THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 29N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N47W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE S
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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