[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N41W TO 2N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
COINCIDING WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AT 315K. TOTAL PRECIPITATABLE WATER AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND CLOUDINESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
WIDELY SCATTTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 39W-
45W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N21W TO 3N35W TO 5N42W TO 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIONIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA PROVIDING SURFACE
RIDGING AND 10 KT SW FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER S FLORIDA...
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA... AND
COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...S OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 60W-79W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                          A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N63W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 25N60W TO
23N63W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 23N63W TO 21N67W TO N OF
HISPANIOLA AT 21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N47W TO
27N42W. AN EMBEDDED 1020 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
29N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N51W
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THE SURFACE
LOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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