[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N43W TO 2N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-
43W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WEST OF THE AXIS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-48W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR
11N16W TO 6N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 6N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N31W 6N41W 1N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
30W-33W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-40W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1019 MB
HIGH SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 85W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR SOME MODERATE
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THIS AREA. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ARE IN THE
NE GULF DIRECTLY NEAR THE HIGH CENTER AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15
KT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. A FEW 20 KT WINDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE BASIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER EASTERN PANAMA CONTINUING INLAND INTO COLOMBIA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS NEAR 65W. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING FAIR CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT...A THIN SWATH OF
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NEAR HISPANIOLA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THIS AREA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 65W-76W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-
20 KT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IN THIS AREA APPEARS TO DRIFT WEST AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
A THIN SWATH OF MOISTURE LIES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IS ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE ISLAND IN
HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND AND TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N67W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 32N54W TO 19N65W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND
CONTINUES TO 23N64W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR AXIS TO
EASTERN CUBA AT 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 30N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 43W SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 46N36W.
HOWEVER...A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N43W DISTURBS THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 30N44W 27N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN AFRICA ALONG 30N TO 24W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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