[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N15W TO 5N20W AND 5N27W...TO 3N40W 3N46W...AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SIERRA LEONE...
IN LIBERIA...AND IN GUINEA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
10W AND 12W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
IN GUINEA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND
35W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST
OF 25W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREAS FROM GUYANA TO SURINAME AND FRENCH
GUIANA AND PARTS OF BRAZIL FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
28N90W 24N86W TO 24N82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA...TO THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS NEAR
23N74W NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 27N71W TO 23N74W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 26N70W AND 24N75W.
THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 24N75W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N63W 26N66W 23N70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
FROM 19N93W 23N95W 27N95W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...
WAS 1.40 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.A. FROM 23N TO 33N BETWEEN 104W IN TEXAS AND 119W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM
19N91W NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BEYOND THE EAST TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA BORDER.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N81W NEAR THE BORDER OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A 1026 MB GULF OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N87W...TO 28N94W...
TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 25N98W...TO 19N97W
IN MEXICO NOT FAR FROM THE COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF ANGLETON/
LAKE JACKSON. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS...INTO
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND ELSEWHERE
IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N
TO THE WEST OF 76W.

A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N TO 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
ACCOMPANYING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N66W TO 20N69W AND 19N70W.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST
OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA TO COASTAL
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N77W...BEYOND 7N84W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N42W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N44W...17N52W...TO
12N58W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N63W. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS A 29N40W 26N41W 23N42W SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
32W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 30N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N51W TO 24N57W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N62W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF 64W...EXCEPT NEAR THE 29N40W
26N41W 23N42W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N64W 24N75W 23N79W 21N79W
COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N64W 22N71W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 62W.
EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST WIND AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
MT


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