[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W
TO 1N27W AND 1N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 37W AND 46W...TO 1N50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 3N TO 9N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N
TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
32N74W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 22N95W TO
21N98W IN MEXICO...25N102W AND 25N104W IN MEXICO.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 29N80W
27N83W 24N86W. A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 17N TO 22N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 24N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 101W...AND IN CUBA BETWEEN
82W AND 84W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N83W 22N90W 19N95W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W 30N75W 28N79W 25N80W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N109W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 18N113W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD. THE WIND FLOW PATTERN
CHANGES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAIN IS FALLING
IN WESLACO TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST STATIONS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...
AND NEAR THE BORDERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA
FROM COASTAL ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. THE
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST ARE REPORTING SCATTERED LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN NAPLES. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO
STATION KGBK. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE ICAO STATION KMYT. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KMDJ.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 29N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N54W...TO
A 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 11N65W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 23N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 20N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM
20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N78W TO 12N81W...TO THE COASTAL
BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N76W IN COLOMBIA...
TO TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA...
BEYOND 10N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
7N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N81W AND
9N83W IN PANAMA...AND IN THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N24W TO 27N26W TO 20N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N24W 30N30W 31N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N50W 22N46W AND 10N45W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N67W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 20N68W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET BETWEEN 90 NM AND 330 NM IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND
FEATURE IS A 31N78W 29N82W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN
8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W FOR THE
NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE EAST OF 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
MT


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