[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 7N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 7N20W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 9W-14W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT
30N90W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR TAMPICO FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. WINDS W OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHERLY AT ONLY 10 KT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 17N91W
MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S OF TAMPICO WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. FURTHER E ...THE TAIL END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR NICARAGUA AT 13N84W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA ...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.  ALSO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. FURTHER SE... A 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 23N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
22N64W TO THE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE LOW FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 61W-64W. FURTHER E... A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N31W TO 28N28W TO
25N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT
23N64W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 34N22W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
BE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA


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