[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 7N20W TO 5N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N25W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 20W-25W...
AND FROM 5N-2S BETWEEN 25W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-1S BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF PRODUCING SEAS OF
ONLY 1-3 FT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N81W PRODUCING WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HISPANIOLA AT 18N70W TO NW
VENEZUELA AT 10N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FURTHER S...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 8N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS 10 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS. ONLY BEAUFORT ONE SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE NOTED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING W AT 5-10 KTS.

TLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A TRIPLE POINT IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA AT 34N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 34N71W TO THE N
BAHAMAS AT 25N76W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM 34N71W TO
26N65W. FURTHER E...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
30N35W TO 26N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO
23N24W TO 20N40W DISSIPATING TO 19N50W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO
THE LEEWARD ISLAND AT 19N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N19W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
E OF 30W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...WHILE
THE E ATLANTIC FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA

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