[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W THEN ALONG 6N17W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W 2N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 8N E OF 20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN INCLUDING THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND FROM 4N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA OVER
FLORIDA NEAR GAINESVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA CONTINUING
ALONG 24N84W TO NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N92W. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 92W.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE E GULF BUT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SUN THEN QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MON
THROUGH WED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N45W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA TO COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W TO 16N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 10N W OF 80W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS S AND SW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ALONG
27N75W TO 23N69W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW THAT AT
05/0300 UTC IS CENTERED INLAND OVER FLORIDA JUST W OF DAYTONA
BEACH EXTENDING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG
26N76W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N60W CONTINUING TO 25N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FLORIDA COAST FROM MIAMI TO DAYTONA BEACH AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
W OF 60W. THIS SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N69W TO BEYOND 32N72W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
E ATLC FROM THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 8N45W ALONG 24N30W TO BEYOND
32N25W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO
27N57W AND FROM 28N41W TO 25N48W. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUD COVER
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE ATLC MOSTLY FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 27W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N67W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N18W. THE 1008 MB LOW WILL
DRIFT TO NE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND ACROSS SE GEORGIA SUN. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT N REACHING FROM NEAR
32N81W TO 26N70W SUN AND NE OF THE AREA BY LATE MON. THEN A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE W AND CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N/CENTRAL ATLC LATE
MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
PAW


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