[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 5N18W 2N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 2N24W TO 1N30W AND 1N36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N
TO THE EAST OF 6W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 51W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 8W AND 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH ARE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N48W...TO
23N60W...INTO SOUTHERN HAITI. A SHEAR AXIS FOR WIND
SPEED CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO 16N78W 15N80W
AND 12N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W AND
26N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 16N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...13N80W
AND 9N80W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 21N84W JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF 90W...AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF 93W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO
THE WEST OF 93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N88W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WIND
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KGVX...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET.
ICAO STATION KGBK IS OBSERVING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST. ICAO STATION KVBS IS REPORTING
AN OVERCAST SKY WITH THE CLOUD BASE AT 6500 FEET.
ICAO STATION KECH IS REPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 2900 FEET. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REST OF THE PLATFORM SITES. NO STATION IS
REPORTING SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS.

CLOUD CEILINGS WHOSE BASES ARE RANGING FROM
1500 FEET TO 7000 FEET ARE OBSERVED FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITY IN BROOKSVILLE IS
BEING REPORTED AT 1.25 MILES WITH FOG.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE
GULF COAST PLAINS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO FLORIDA.
CLOUD CEILINGS WHOSE BASES ARE RANGING FROM
2000 FEET TO 7000 FEET ARE OBSERVED FROM
TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS BEING
REPORTED IN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO IN MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH RUNS ALONG THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
ISLANDS NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...TOWARD SAINT
KITTS AND NEVIS...TOWARD SAINT LUCIA...TO 12N62W
NEAR GRENADA. FEW LOW CLOUDS/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
61W AND 66W TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATES IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N70W TO 14N78W...TO 19N84W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N31W TO 17N51W...
TO 15N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 14N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD
FRONT 20N74W 13N82W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 84W.
EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
13N54W...19N48W TO 24N39W BEYOND 32N26W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N64W TO
26N71W...TO 27N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N12W...ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N31W TO 17N51W...TO 15N70W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 14N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N46W
20N69W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
11 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 40W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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