[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER BETWEEN GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE IN AFRICA NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS TO THE E ATLC
ALONG 6N15W 3N18W 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N23W 2N34W
1N42W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 22W AS WELL AS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND
41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUE OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS NEAR 33N97W. THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT
TO THE ENTIRE BASIN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS S OF 25N ARE BANKING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO...BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS WESTERN CUBA. METAR
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO HAVE REPORTED
HAZE...FOG...CONTINUOUS RAIN AS WELL AS WELL AS DRIZZLE. NO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBESERVED AT THIS TIME BUT THE
SATELLITE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 22N. THESE SHOWERS MAY
BE ENHANCED BY MOISTURE THAT IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E
PACIFIC BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. N
OF 22N CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATE. OVER THE COURSE OF 24
HOURS...ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS
THE HIGH OVER TEXAS DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD MISSISSIPPI. WIND
MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THIS PERIOD TO ABOUT 10-
15 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND ALONG
19N81W 17N84W 15N86W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS 50 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD E
OF 70W ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC. EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS WINDS OF THE
SAME MAGNITUDE THAN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE S OF 17N
BETWEEN 71W AND 83W. LIGHTER WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN BE FOUND
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE
WEST OF THE FRONT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT SPREAD FROM
THE YUCANTAN CHANNEL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISPLACE EASTWARD BUT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY THE PORTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 25 KT. SIMILAR
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EXTENDING OVER THE WEST ATLC ALONG 30N61W
26N68W 23N73W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND THEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 100 NM WEST OF THE FRONT
FROM 21N-25N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC N OF 10N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
23N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMNANT OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS NE OF THE HIGH FROM 30N20W 26N27W 24N35W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS.

OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN AND DISPLACE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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