[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N30W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-17N BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO LA PESCA MEXICO
NEAR 24N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE
GULF FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA
FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W
OF 85W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N55W. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER N FROM 32N44W TO 31N50W TO
32N60W MOVING ESE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FGRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE N
BAHAMAS N OF 0F 25N W OF 70W AGAIN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
32N32W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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