[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W
TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 2N30W 1N38W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO 3S44W IN NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
TO THE WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ALABAMA/
GEORGIA BORDER THAT IS ALONG 32N...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 29N.
LIGHT RAIN STILL IS BEING OBSERVED FROM MIAMI TO HOMESTEAD.
LIGHT RAIN HAS ENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NAPLES
TO SARASOTA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N74W
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N87W.

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1/4 OF A MILE AT THE ICAO STATION
KBBF TO 3 MILES AT THE OTHER STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TWO SITES...
KMYT AND KMDJ...THAT ARE ALONG 90W JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG...KVPS REPORTS 1.5 MILES OF VISIBILITY
WITH FOG AND KVNP REPORTS 2.5 MILES VISIBILITY WITH FOG OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...ICAO STATION REPORTS A VISIBILITY
OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG...KECH REPORTS A VISIBILITY OF
1.25 MILES WITH FOG.

FAIR SKIES ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF FOG COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...INTO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE
MILE WITH FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING THE
VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEARING SKIES ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO
THE SOUTH OF PERRY FLORIDA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
RAIN AND FOG ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN PERRY AND TO
THE WEST OF PERRY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
30 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 26N97W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N71W...
TO 23N77W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
TO 16N80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND EAST
OF THE LINE 17N80W 17N70W 16N64W 12N65W...IN AREAS OF BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N71W...
TO 23N77W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
TO 16N80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 28N23W...TO 23N30W...TO 20N47W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 32N16N 28N20W 21N30W
19N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W 20N25W 17N45W 16N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N33W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W...TO 28N74W...BEYOND 26N80W ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 50W...WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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