[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 4N20W
2N30W 1N40W 1N49W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 41W AND EXTENDING ABOUT 200
NM S OF THE AXIS AND 100 NM N OF IT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHEREAS LIGHTER CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF 4N WEST OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT N OF
27N AND MOISTURE COVERING THE REST OF THE BASIN. THIS MOISTURE
THAT CONTINUES BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING BROKEN SKIES S OF 27N. LIGHT
FOG AND HAZE CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF
COASTLINE FROM TUXPAN TO CAMPECHE AND THE GOES IR IMAGERY
ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION W OF 85W. RETURN FLOW
HAS BUILT OVER THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. WIND MAGNITUDE IS IN THE RANGE OF 5-
15 KT BEING 10 KT PREDOMINANT. OVER THE COURSE OF 24
HOURS...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SURROUNDING A
BROAD RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC AND S OF THE EQUATOR
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SHEARLINE IS BEING ANALYZED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N73W 16N75W TO 13N77W.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH OBSERVED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE SHEARLINE...
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHERE A TIGHTER PRESURE GRADIENT HAS BUILT. THE SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WHILE NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N49W AND CONTINUES ALONG
24N56W 22N61W TO 20N64W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W...HOWEVER
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WEST ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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