[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...
GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...
AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 4N30W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NEAR 29N89W. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 20 KT
NE WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA.
EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL.
ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO THE WEST ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N74W PRODUCING WARM SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N HISPANIOLA TO SE OF
JAMAICA ALONG 20N71W 17N77W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT AND
SHEARLINE. FURTHER N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. 20-
25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 60W.
EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND A RESIDUAL SHEARLINE TO EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO
NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N55W
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. MORE BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE N OF THIS FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 23N58W. A
996 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N29W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N24W TO 24N26W TO 18N33W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH IS
FURTHER W FROM 30N27W TO 24N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net