[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUBH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 3N25W TO 0N36W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-20W... AND FROM 2S-4N
BETWEEN 25W-37W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 35N88W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S TEXAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-25
KT NE-E WINDS WITH THE E GULF HAVING THE STRONGER WINDS AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL HAVING 25 KT WINDS. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER
THE NE GULF. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND FOR A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH TO BE OVER
THE NE GULF WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO N HONDURAS
ALONG 21N75W 16N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...
THE TAIL END OF A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM 11N60W TO N OF
VENEZUELA AT 12N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
SHEARLINE. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N E OF PUERTO RICO. 20-25 KT
N WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 63W. EXPECT...IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HAITI TO N NICARAGUA
WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W
TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 20-25
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E
NEAR 26N61W. A 996 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N39W. A FORMING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N36W TO
26N35W TO 16N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT
N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 24N35W TO 15N43W. A SHEARLINE
CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 11N50W 11N60W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
10N W OF 50W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 25W-
50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 10N E OF 25W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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