[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST THU MAR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N/3N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W...AND ALONG 3N23W 2N30W...1N35W
1N42W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 23N...
AND TO SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INLAND REACHES THE
U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N71W...THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO
23N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N78W TO 20N84W...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE BORDER OF THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STORM-
FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR SKIES COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W INCLUDING IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS IS ALONG 32N41W 23N40W 16N42W
TO 10N51W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N42W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N34W 22N38W 16N44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO 16N73W...
TO HISPANIOLA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N65W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. EXPECT THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 22N79W 16N87W...EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N65W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 29N34W 16N44W
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 32N70W-TO-BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W COLD FRONT.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N21W TO 24N26W...TO 15N31W AND 6N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED
TO THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N45W...TO 23N47W. EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH TO 55W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
9 TO 13 FOOT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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