[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W
TO 10N16W 5N20W AND 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S38W...TO 3S42W AT THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N ALONG THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...5N10W 6N13W 5N20W 3N30W 5N43W 7N52W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 18N86W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 25N85W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...BEYOND 32N84W IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH IOWA AND
MISSOURI...INTO OKLAHOMA...AND TO CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO 27N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
24N95W...TO 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 21N98W TO A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
IN MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
FROM THE 1003 MB LOW CENTER...TO 25N103W...AND BEYOND 31N109W IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 26N95W TO 28N93W
BEYOND 31N91W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE STATIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS THAT ARE COMPARATIVELY CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED AT THE THREE STATIONS THAT ARE
COMPARATIVELY MORE INLAND. THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS OF
SIX HOURS AGO ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST HAVE BEEN
BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE CEILINGS REMAIN
FROM THE MIDDLE COASTAL STATIONS TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL
AREAS. SOME STATIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST THAT ARE
COMPARATIVELY MORE INLAND STILL ARE OBSERVING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE REST OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN TEXAS AND
FLORIDA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT PASSES RIGHT THROUGH LOUISIANA.

VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/FOG
ARE OBSERVED AT KMYT AND AT KEHC...TWO OFFSHORE DRILLING SITES.
OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE OFFSHORE OIL
DRILLING SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. VISIBILITIES
RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 MILES ARE FOUND IN MANY OF THE OTHER AREAS
OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WIND
CONDITIONS WITH THE 29N90W 20N97W COLD FRONT. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N51W...TO
28N61W AND 21N66W...ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W TO 12N75W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT AND A 990 MB GALE CENTER. THE 990 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR
34N51W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N41W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N41W TO 23N50W AND
17N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM TO 200 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 27N41W BEYOND 32N35...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF
30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO
RICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N77W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N77W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N21W...TO
24N30W 21N36W...TO 10N53W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 10N43W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N42W TO 17N58W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 11 TO 14 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N WITHIN 210 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 13 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 53W. EXPECT 20 TO
30 KNOT WINDS AND 14 TO 20 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF
23N53W 27N66W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE IN THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT TO THE WEST OF THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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