[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO
3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 1N36W TO THE  COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
0W-7W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ
FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N77W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. 15-20
KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER N OF
28N BETWEEN 87W-90W. FURTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
E TEXAS WITH CONVECTION MOVING SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W  PRODUCING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. FAIR WEATHER IS S OF 25N. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W GULF FROM E
LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 25 KT N
WINDS W OF THE FRONT...AND 10-20 KT SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 64W-73W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE WESTERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO OCCUR. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS
TO PERSIST WITH THE ADDITION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 991 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N57W. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A GALE
N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W EXTENDING FROM
31N48W TO 22N60W TO 20N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THIS FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-51W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N26W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 50W
TO WEST AFRICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
DISSIPATING FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE OTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES E WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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