[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO
4N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N20W AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO BRAZIL
NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
22W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N
BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA
NEAR 28N83W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE
15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ENTIRE
AREA VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR A
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N75W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO
RICO AT 18N66W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 15N73W TO E PANAMA
AT 9N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-85W TO INCLUDE
THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHILE ONLY 10 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 5N64W PRODUCING S TO
SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N66W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W. A GALE IS W OF THE TROUGH N
OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N49W TO PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N44W. A COLD FRONT IS NOW E OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N10W TO 22N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. A GALE IS W OF THIS FRONT N OF 26N
BETWEEN 18W-28W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH AXIS
ALONG 40W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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