[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GUINEA NEAR 11N15W INTO
THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC ALONG 5N17W 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 4N19W TO 1N31W 1N47W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
21W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA TO NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUING TO
ADVECT COOLER AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE
WESTERN GULF WEST OF 94W FAIR WITH CLEAR SKIES...WHILE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT LIGHT...SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF
20-25 KT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THE GULF. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO EAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 17N80W
11N82W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING
20-25 KT IN MOST SPOTS WITH A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W. OVERCAST
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT
BETWEEN 75W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED EAST OF THE
FRONT ALONG 18N76W TO 11N79W. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 55W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
PRESENT OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PREVIOUSLY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE
COLD FRONTS. THE ONE FARTHEST WEST ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N65W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N75W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND IT ALONG 32N71W TO 29N78W. OVERCAST SKIES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 220 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
AXIS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
55W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A PAIR OF
HIGH CENTERS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
NEAR 22N52W...WHILE A 1016 MB HIGH IS NEAR 20N27W. THE TWO HIGH
CENTERS ARE KEEPING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS BEFORE CHANGING DIRECTIONS WITH THE AXIS HEADING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO NEAR 9N48W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE SECOND COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N24W
27N33W 26N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 12W-26W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
AXIS ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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