[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.
THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE...BUT
IT LINES UP WELL WITH A 700 MB TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 20N61W 16N64W 11N65W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA OF THE 24N66W 11N67W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W
FROM 14N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
14N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 KNOTS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN JAMAICA...IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF CUBA
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN CUBA AND 79W...FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND IN THE WATER
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N79W IN COASTAL PANAMA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...ACROSS EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...TO 15N94W ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SENEGAL/GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 11N18W AND 10N21W.
THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N21W AND IT CONTINUES TO
7N30W 3N40W AND 2N50W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 21W...FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF GUINEA-BISSAU...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W
AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
33W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N IN THE WATER
TO THE WEST OF 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N89W
TO 24N93W...INTO MEXICO BEYOND 24N98W AT THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
NEAR 30N92W IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 92W FROM 29N TO
30N...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ROUGHLY FROM
250 MB TO 100 MB...PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN
CURVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 26N78W. THE WIND FLOW
FOR THE LEVELS FROM 250 MB AND LOWER TO 600 MB
IS SOUTHWESTERLY...UNDER THE 100 MB TO 250 MB
ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 25N73W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 98W FROM 23N TO 24N.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LOUISIANA...FROM GALLIANO
TO GRAND ISLE AND BOOTHVILLE...MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE ALABAMA...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
WHITING FIELD...IN VALPARAISO...AND IN PERRY...
IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT BEING OBSERVED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...AT KMZG OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...AND KDLP AND KBVE OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST
OF 80W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 24N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N67W ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W
FROM 14N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
14N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN JAMAICA...IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF CUBA
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN CUBA AND 79W...FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND IN THE WATER
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N79W IN COASTAL PANAMA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...ACROSS EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...TO 15N94W ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N73W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/
VENEZUELA BORDER...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...IN SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
AND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W.
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST INCLUDES NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 24N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N67W ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. HISPANIOLA IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A COMPARATIVELY
NARROW RIDGE THAT WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY WILL
OPEN INTO A COMPARATIVELY BROADER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUTTING
HISPANIOLA IN AN AREA OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR
250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO
RICO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH
TIME AND BECOME COMPARATIVELY BROADER IN COVERAGE
IN ORDER TO SPAN HISPANIOLA ALSO. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ROUGHLY FROM
250 MB TO 100 MB...PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN
CURVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 26N78W. THE WIND FLOW
FOR THE LEVELS FROM 250 MB AND LOWER TO 600 MB
IS SOUTHWESTERLY...UNDER THE 100 MB TO 250 MB
ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N44W
AND 20N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N52W 28N56W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 25N73W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 98W FROM 23N TO 24N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 22N47W
TO 15N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR
THE AREA THAT IS AROUND THE 31N52W 28N56W SURFACE
TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN
43W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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