[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
IN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A 700 MB TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W
13N58W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 15N57W 11N63W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN 74W
AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W...ACROSS SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N IN PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS
STRONG COVERS NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR 8N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 4N35W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
TO THE EAST OF 20W...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND
30W...FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 41W
AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SCATTERED STRONG
IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND IN SOUTH-
EASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST OF 90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 24N94W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND COASTAL MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
90W AND 100W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N62W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1014 MB GULF OF
MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92W...
TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 24N/25N.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM MARY ESTHER TO VALPARAISO TO DESTIN.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
BEING REPORTED IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MOBILE ALABAMA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF
OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW
COVERS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN
73W AND 83W.

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN 74W
AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W...ACROSS SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA BEYOND 10N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 9N IN PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND
EL SALVADOR.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W...ABOUT 350 NM TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE
AREA. EARLIER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT
WERE IN HISPANIOLA ABOUT 28/2045 UTC AND LATER HAVE
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS A RIDGE WILL BE ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA...UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD...
BEING REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL BE ALONG 64W
AND 65W/66W WITH TIME. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...ENOUGH IN ORDER TO
PASS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY TWO OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH 32N...AND REACHING
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 29N88W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA ON 28/2045 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 33N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N41W AND
17N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W...AND FROM 28N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N62W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A
1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 25N92W...TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 24N/25N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 22N43W
TO 12N45W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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