[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 27/1200 UTC EXTENDING FROM
13N21W TO 4N22W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N45W TO 3N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE WAVE WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N71W
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N71W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE
WITH A SWATH OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN 14N-17N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 9N83W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W TO
6N43W. THE ITCZ IS DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 31W-44W AND S OF 8N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 51W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF CENTERED OFF NW YUCATAN
NEAR 21N94W WHILE A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FAR NE GULF N OF 28N. AN UPPER RIDGE OF IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 88W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S GULF S OF 24N TO INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO BETWEEN 87W-92W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N87W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO 24N
THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N/10N FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 80W AND S OF 11N W OF 80W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 17N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W-71W.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH FRI. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN
IN W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SUN. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 71W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
N OF ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA
AND COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD BRING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO
BEYOND 32N77W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 25N64W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W TO W PUERTO
RICO AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH IN
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N60W AND A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE
AZORES. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO COVER THE E ATLC FROM 10N-21N
E OF 45W AND N OF 21N E OF 37W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S FRI
NIGHT THROUGH MON. NORTH PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW THROUGH BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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