[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 3N42W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N69W THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 13N67W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE N OF 17N. DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT
THE N VORTEX LEAVING THE AREA S OF 17N WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA
AND HISPANIOLA AT 87W AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N78W
TO 14N79W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS IN AN AREA VOID OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N19W TO 7N23W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N28W TO 8N40W THEN RESUMES W OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 20W-24W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
7N40W TO 3N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE CONUS INTO THE GULF
NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 28N90W WHILE A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE S GULF CENTERED OFF NW YUCATAN NEAR 21N92W. THIS IS
SPLITTING THE GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF OVER THE W GULF W OF
94W AND OVER THE E GULF E OF 84W TO OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-27N E OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE N CENTRAL GULF N OF
25N BETWEEN 86W-92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
SE GEORGIA/ FLORIDA PANHANDLE GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO
ALONG 24N-25N THU THROUGH SUN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE E CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW IN THE S
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W
OF 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
10N FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W AND S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE.
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THU. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU THEN WEAKEN IN THE
W CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE E CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REACHING HAITI THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA
AND COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BRING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N79W TO 33N76W. AN
UPPER LOW IS TO THE E AND IS CENTERED NEAR 25N69W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
63W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 30N63W AND A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS NE OF THE AZORES.
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO COVER THE E ATLC FROM 10N-20N E OF 40W
AND N OF 20N E OF 30W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THU THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net