[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N75W TO 15N78W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT IN THE SW
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC...PORTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF. THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS N OF 17N
WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA
AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ISLAND SE COAST. THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO VANISH BEFORE/AFTER
CROSSING WESTERN CUBA TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ITS AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 19N65W TO 12N66W AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT.
CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY LEAD TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES OR MORE IN SOME AREAS OF THE ISLAND.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WITH TRAILING HIGH MOISTURE ALONG
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
REPORTED. THE WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE MONA
PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND DURING THAT PERIOD WITH SKIES CLEARING VERY EARLY ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS ALONG
12N39W TO 02N39W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. IT IS SHOWING A BETTER
AMPLITUDE IN THE 700 MB AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE AND THE ITCZ AXIS ARE FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 41W-49W WHERE HIGH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS HUMIDITY IS
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE
N OF 07N DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 08N21W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 08N21W AND IT CONTINUES
TO 07N29W 06N37W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DESCRIBED ABOVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ...CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N-11N EAST OF
21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURES OVER THE
NORTH ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF GENERATING RETURN FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20
KT IN THE NW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N89W TO 18N93W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE
AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SE GULF JUST NW OF
KEY WEST AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
FROM A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT
SPREADS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS W OF 91W N OF 20N WHICH IS SUPPRESSING ANY TYPE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CURRENT  WEATHER FEATURES IN THE LOWER
AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N75W TO 15N78W. TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N75W TO 15N78W. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS
CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE ISLAND AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS. CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY LEAD TO  ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES OR
MORE IN SOME AREAS OF THE ISLAND. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
WITH TRAILING HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REPORTED. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 11N
WHERE HIGH MOISTURE IS OBSERVED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE DUE TO BANKING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE TRADEWINDS.
ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WHILE AT THE
SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...THE WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD
TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO VANISH BEFORE/AFTER CROSSING THE WEST
SIDE OF THE ISLAND TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THAT PERIOD
WITH SKIES CLEARING VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHILE LIGHT
TRADEWINDS OF 5-10 KT FLOW OVER IT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
START TO DEGRADE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD PUSHING AN
ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY IN THE EVENING
TODAY. RAINSHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES OR HIGHER
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 16N FROM A
SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AND A
1021 MB NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 30N63W. MODERATE MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ENHANCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW OF THE HIGH FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 64W-68W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE...TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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