[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N68W TO 09N68W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W-NW AT 5
KT TO 10 KT IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC...PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT BOTH
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
HAPPENING NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE
AND BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WEST ATLC AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT
SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE MONA PASSAGE.

TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 09N57W. THIS WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A
HIGH HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER IN VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE SW ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...VERY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED CONFIRMED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GRANADA OF WIDESPREAD DUST. PATCHES OF DRY AIR
IN THIS REGION ARE ALSO DISCERNIBLE IN THE METEOSAT-9 SAL
TRACKING PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 275
NM SE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 14N WHERE THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONCENTRATION IS LOCATED IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
12N16W TO 08N20W 07N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 07N24W AND IT
CONTINUES TO 05N32W 03N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 30W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURES N OF THE AREA
OVER THE NORTH ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO THE GULF GENERATING
RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WEST
AND EAST SEA BREEZES OF FLORIDA HAVE GENERATED A SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF FROM 27N82W TO
25N82W. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM
WEST OF THE TROUGH AND 30 NM TO THE EAST OF IT S OF 28N. BOTH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS W OF 88W WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N68W TO 09N68W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW HUMIDITY
ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF LA
HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A
HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT BOTH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HAPPENING NE OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AND BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
WEST ATLC AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MONA PASSAGE.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
FAR WEST CARIBBEAN AND THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED/ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-87W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
WHICH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE E PAC TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN RANGING FROM 20-
25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF HAITI BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO VANISH IN THE WAKE OF INTERACTION
WITH A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 57W IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUERTO RICO VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE  ASSOCIATED TO IT.


HISPANIOLA...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER HAITI WHILE LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5-10 KT
ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N68W TO 09N68W.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT BOTH
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
HAPPENING NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE
AND BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WEST ATLC AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT
SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF HAITI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO VANISH IN THE
WAKE OF INTERACTION WITH A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 57W IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
GENERATING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 13N FROM A
SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. EXCEPT
FOR THE AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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