[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N59W TO 04N58W MOVING WEST AT
5-10 KT. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW HUMIDITY AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS BARELY DISCERNIBLE
AT 700 MB IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO DRIFT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N48W TO 04N48W MOVING WEST AT
5 KT. THE WAVE AMPLITUDE IS DEPICTED CLEARLY AT 700 MB IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A MODERATE
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM WEST OF THE AXIS N OF 10N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 07N23W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 07N23W AND IT CONTINUES
TO 05N33W 05N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 15W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE
W HALF OF THE GULF W OF 90W AS WELL AS IN A PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF E OF 85W. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WEST
CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE
WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WEST
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA
SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE BASIN. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COSTLINESS OF COSTA
RICA...PANAMA AND COLOMBIA WHICH ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT
ABOUNDS. STRONGER TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE
COURSE OF 48 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN. THE TRAILING WAVE CURRENTLY WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING
LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED SINCE TUE AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LOWER LEVELS DRY CONDITIONS OVER HAITI AND MODERATE
MOISTURE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5
KT. HAZE AND BROKEN SKIES ARE REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS DISCUSSED IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS DURING MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DAYLIGHT HEATING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 14N FROM A
SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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