[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
6N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY
ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
THE WAVE COVERS THE HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. IT
CROSSES HONDURAS...GOING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
IN HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR
8N21W AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N24W 8N40W AND 9N44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W...
AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO
ALONG 102W/103W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
87W/88W. AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N89W...CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
REACHING EASTERN HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 28N TO THE WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO LAND
BETWEEN 86W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 92W IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE NORTH OF 20N...AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF
81W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N86W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE...IN TEXAS IN PORT ISABEL...
FALFURRIAS...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
IN LOUISIANA IN AMELIA/LAKE PALOURD...GALLIANO
REPORTING NEARBY RAINSHOWERS...IN THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA...SLIDELL...IN ALABAMA AT THE
DOWNTOWN AIRPORT IN MOBILE AND IN GULF SHORES...
IN FLORIDA AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA...
IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE
TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA WITH RAIN. HIGH CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA NEAR MILTON...VALPARAISO...
AND THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST
OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W...CROSSING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND REACHING EASTERN HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE
24N89W-TO-EASTERN HONDURAS TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...
THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W/84W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 24N67W
20N68W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST
OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY
GRADUALLY DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 31N21W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 29N39W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N40W AND 14N39W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG 60W REACHING 30N/31N. PART
OF THE WIND MOVES TOWARD THE 29N39W 14N39W TROUGH.
ANOTHER PART OF THE WIND MOVES TOWARD AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 27N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE 27N71W CENTER...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO 19N79W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N86W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N ALONG 46W/47W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net