[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N44W TO 4N46W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DENSE SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THE AREA E OF THIS WAVE TO AFRICA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 31W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. PATCHES OF SAHARAN DUST ARE W OF
THIS WAVE TO THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES TO
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 10N57W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AS IS LOCATED INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N32W TO 10N42W. THE ITCZ BECOMES DISRUPTED
BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N48W TO 8N55W
WHERE IT IS AGAIN DISRUPTED BY THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-10N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING N OVER KENTUCKY WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER THE N GULF COAST TO 28N88W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 83W TO
OVER FLORIDA TO TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 84W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH A
1018 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN VERACRUZ
AND TUXPAN WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW N
OF E CUBA TO S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N84W COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W ALONG 11N81W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA S OF 11N
W OF 81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S TO SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN A 90 NM OF LINE
FROM PUERTO RICO ALONG 16N74W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU.

HISPANIOLA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND AND IS GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LOW N OF E CUBA REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH MON BEFORE PULLING
NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON MON AND TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON
LATE WED AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN WED INCREASING SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS GRADUALLY MOVED NE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM JUST OFF MELBOURNE
ALONG 31N80W TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 29N. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS LOCATED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE PLUME OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 30W THEN THINS OVER THE ARE FROM 10N-25N
BETWEEN 30W-58W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
ATLC THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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