[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO 3N36W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DENSE
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE AREA NE OF THIS WAVE TO AFRICA LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO 3N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. PATCHES OF
SAHARAN DUST ARE W OF THIS WAVE TO THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE
AND CONTINUES TO LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO 11N82W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS
AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 6N38W ALONG 5N43W TO 6N48W
WHERE IT IS AGAIN DISRUPTED BY THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. THE
ITCZ AGAIN RESUMES NEAR 6N52W AND CONTINUES INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER N GEORGIA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF AT 22/1500 UTC NEAR 30N83W ALONG 28N88W TO
29N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125
NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 29N FROM ALABAMA TO E OF GALVESTON TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED
JUST S OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW N
OF E CUBA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-83W. THE NW FLOW
ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE SE SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N76W ALONG 10N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 79W-
83W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S TO SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N W OF 71W TO ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN EARLY MON AND REACH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 71W. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW N OF E CUBA WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
MON BEFORE WEAKENING. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL
EXTEND W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MON AND TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE INCREASE
EVEN MORE ON WED AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ENTER
THE E CARIBBEAN WED INCREASING SHOWERS BY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER N GEORGIA IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 22/1500 UTC NEAR 32N79W TO 31N81W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM SE OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT
22/1500 UTC FROM 30N77W ALONG 27N78W TO 24N79W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE WAVE TO 76W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N75W. A SMALL LOW KNOWN AS A SCREAMING EAGLE
IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ATLC ABOUT 450 NM N-NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ON THE 22/1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR THE AZORES. A PLUME OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLC N
OF 10N E OF 35W. THIS DUST THINS OVER THE ARE FROM 10N-24N
BETWEEN 35W-54W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
ATLC THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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