[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI
FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO AROUND 20/1300 UTC. ITS CENTER AT 20/1800 UTC IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 97.4W AND IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N WEST OF
93W. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE STATE
OF VERACRUZ AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS JUST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN HAITI
AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 22N70W TO 14N72W AND MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LA
HISPANIOLA IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS
WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF HAITI...WITHIN 130 NM
EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 16N-19N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W.
THE AREAS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
MOISTURE VISIBLE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 14N17W TO 04N17W. THE PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR
IMAGERY SHOW DUST SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE DRY AIR FROM THE SAL IS ABOUT 250 NM AWAY
FROM THE WAY AXIS. THE LACK OF DRY AIR IN THE IMMEDIATE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE
DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION...WITHIN 190 NM FROM 05N-09N W
OF THE AXIS AS WELL AS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 13W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 14N37W TO
04N39W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT SHOWS MODERATE DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE ENVIRONMENT OF
THE WAVE N OF 07N. PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW A DUST
OUTBREAK WITH DENSE BROWNISH HAZE ALSO REACHING THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE PORTION OF THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO
06N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 05N28W TO 07N36W. IT
RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N40W TO 06N54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-
31W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO AROUND 1300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N WEST OF 93W. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. OVER
THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NW FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29N83W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 35 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE NW GULF
NEAR 27N91W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHERE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ABOUND.

THE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ALREADY INLAND MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE/REMNANTS
OF BARRY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LA HISPANIOLA. THE AXIS OF THIS
WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 14N72W AND WILL BE CROSSING TO HAITI
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND
IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF HAITI...WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF
THE AXIS FROM 16N-19N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. THE
AREAS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
MOISTURE VISIBLE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN 110 NM OF THE
COASTLINES OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE IN PART TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. THE
LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD DUST AND HAZE.
OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ABOUND ACROSS THE BASIN.

BY EARLY FRIDAY THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER EASTERN
CUBA BRINGING MOISTURE AND ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER BY EARLY SATURDAY AND OVER WESTERN CUBA MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER
LEVELS DRY AIR.

HISPANIOLA...
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LA HISPANIOLA. THE AXIS OF THIS
WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 14N72W AND WILL BE CROSSING TO HAITI
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND
IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF HAITI...WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF
THE AXIS FROM 16N-19N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. THE
AREAS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
MOISTURE VISIBLE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W-NW IN A FAST PACE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL START
OVER HAITI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF HAITI VERY EARLY ON FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 29N49W TO 24N50W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N30W SPREADS OVER
THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 15N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net