[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY AT 20/1200 UTC
IS NEAR 19.6N 96.4W...MOVING WESTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 26 NM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO
THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD
BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 85W...
INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH
OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN
94W AND 98W AT THE MEXICO COAST. SCATTERED STRONG IN
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N BETWEEN
85W AND 86W...FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE ACROSS GUATEMALA
ALONG 16N/17N...TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND
68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND
83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF
AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 9N20W AND 7N26W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N26W TO 5N35W 5N41W...AND 3N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
5N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT EVENTUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF T.S. BARRY.
SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 28N...TO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA.
RAIN AND THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN DESTIN AND
IN VALPARAISO IN FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
COVERS NAPLES FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE ICAO STATION KDLP IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM BARRY. EXPECT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS...AND
WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER WILL BE
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...
WITHIN 45 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 15 FEET. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
20 KNOTS TO 33 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 23.5N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
BERMUDA-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 80W. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD
IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS
SPIRALLING AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...BETWEEN 74W AND 86W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND 8 TO
11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 115N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W
AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...TO A 23N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOWARD NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
71W ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF
THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD...REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEXT 48 HOUR
TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD...REPLACED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 34N BETWEEN 33W AND
54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 24N TO
31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N23W
TO A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N28W
AND 13N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 28N...TO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W...TO 24N28W...
18N25W...CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N22W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 16N
TO THE WEST OF 56W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 62W AND 76W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN
55W AND 67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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