[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 95.5W AT 20/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 89W-93W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W.  SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N31W TO 6N32W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS
ALSO A CLEARING IN THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT SPREADS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
DUST...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N65W TO 13N66W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG
7N36W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 11W-16...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 50W-
59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO CENTERED AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W. TROPICAL
STORM BARRY IS IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
90W-98W. MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
FOR MORE DETAILS. NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF BARRY...WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BARRY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW GULF...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 71W.
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ALONG 9N TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 71W IS PROVIDING MOIST
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS
ENHANCING ACTIVITY NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
BASIN. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE STILL TO THE EAST IS HELPING
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. THE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE ISLAND
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN EXTENDING FROM A
1033 MB AZORES HIGH. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 24N69W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAR WEST ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
AROUND THE EAST SIDE ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 62W-68W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 55W...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N43W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
30N44W TO 23N46W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHILE A THIRD
WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 26N25W. A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING TO NEAR 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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