[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 18/0900 UTC
IS NEAR 17.0N 89.4W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
7 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
ABOUT 27N NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TIKAL IN
GUATEMALA...AND ABOUT 186 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF CAMPECHE IN MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR
ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND
INTENSITY.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 95W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N
TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTHERN BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N
TO THE WEST OF 78W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 95W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 5N36W AND 5N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
10W AND 12W ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE HIGH
CLOUDS THAT SURROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH
28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...
TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE HOUSTON
HOBBY AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA
FROM SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL
ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF 86W. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS
FALLING AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KVBS AND KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO INLAND NEAR 17.8N 92.0W. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE OVER GULF WATERS
THAT ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT
SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 66W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
EAST OF 70W...IN TRADEWIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N56W 22N65W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA
ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W...ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF PANAMA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N IN
COLOMBIA TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...NEAR 17.0N
89.4W 1009 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 18 MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
7 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 19N
TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18.5N TO THE
WEST OF 83W. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST
PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON
TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH
A TROUGH CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHIFTS
WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...
WITH HISPANIOLA RIGHT IN THE TROUGH.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W TO A 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N61W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N61W TO 28N66W AND 26N69W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N45W TO A 29N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
21N48W AND 17N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH
28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...
TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N56W 22N65W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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