[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 18/0300 UTC
IS NEAR 16.7N 88.9W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO
THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 95W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N87W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
THE NORTH OF HONDURAS AND TO THE EAST OF BELIZE.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHERN
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN
85W AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 60W/61W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 9N23W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N29W TO 6N40W...7N50W AND 7N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE HIGH
CLOUDS THAT SURROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH
29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W...
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN WESLACO IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN
VALPARAISO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED
IN DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION
KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO INLAND NEAR 17.8N 92.0W. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE OVER GULF WATERS
THAT ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT
SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 27N51W 25N57W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA
ALONG 9N/10N...FROM 74W TO 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N IN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 75W IN
COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
INCLUDING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE WEST OF 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...NEAR 16.7N
88.9W 1007 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 18 MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. EXPECT
ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES FROM 15N TO
18N TO THE EAST OF 64W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N65W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST
PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON
TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH
A TROUGH CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHIFTS
WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...
WITH HISPANIOLA RIGHT IN THE TROUGH.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W TO A 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 28N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 15N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH
29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W...
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 27N51W 25N57W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 17N TO
THE WEST OF 48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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