[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N84W TO 21N82W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER NOTED ON IMAGERY FROM 09N-20N
BETWEEN 77W-88W. A SEEMINGLY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE AREA
LACKS ANY DEFINED AND ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT
THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AROUND
700 MB HAS SHARPENED AND CONTINUES TO MIRROR THE WAVE AXIS
ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. REMAINING ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPTATION TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EVENTUALLY
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N53W TO 09N51W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS LARGELY BEEN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AS IT HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 16/1326 UTC SHOWED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH STRONG
NE WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AXIS. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 49W-56W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL TRACK W-NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND EVENTUALLY
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IN THE VICINITY OF 23N65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N23W TO 07N28W TO 08N37W TO 06N44W TO 06N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 10W-17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 34W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF
88W WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
ALONG 27N. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IS PROVIDING MOST OF
THE GULF WITH STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W IS FURTHER
PROMOTING THE FAIR WEATHER. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO FAIR WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-90W...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...
AND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE DYNAMICS. LOOKING AHEAD...
THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ANY
REMAINING ENERGY WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW GULF
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 83W. THE WAVE AT THE
SURFACE IS LOCATED BELOW A MOSTLY DIFFLUENT REGIME WITH OUTFLOW
AND HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDINESS FANNING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. ASIDE
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 67W-78W.
THE WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 75W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL GENERAL WEAK SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N76W. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING FOR THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ABC ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE BASE OF A SW
NORTH ATLC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO
A BASE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N72W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW
HINTS OF BREAKING OFF A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR 24N65W.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NE OF THE
ISLAND...NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ALOFT...HOWEVER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO A BASE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 22N72W. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS N OF 25N...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO 29N61W THEN W-SW AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N69W. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS OFFSHOOT FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONE FROM 31N58W TO
27N60W...THE OTHER FROM 28N64W TO 24N68W. WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING A PORTION OF THE FORCING FOR
CONVECTION...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE A
RESULT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING FROM WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N57W TO 25N62W TO 20N67W TO
20N77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF
22N W OF 68W REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 36N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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