[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 21N79W
ALONG 17N81W TO 10N81W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ANY ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N18W TO 11N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N25W 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 27W-55W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4N-8N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM SW
GEORGIA TO 27N84W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY SUPPORT FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST N OF FORT MYERS ALONG 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND N OF MOBILE
ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF NE OF THE FRONT TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING W AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AT 16/0900 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO NEAR 19N92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF W OF 90W AND ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N87W TO INLAND
OVER SE LOUISIANA BEYOND 30N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THU. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON ENTERING THE SW
GULF EARLY TUE AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH THU
WITH SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE S OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W-90W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS
ALSO EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 76W-87W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
18N78W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN FURTHER ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON. WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING
THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SPARSE THIS MORNING BUT WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-80W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N66W TO 26N71W WHERE IT IS WEAKENS
AND BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER
THE FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF FORT MYERS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
TO BEYOND 32N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N58W. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N42W AND WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF
THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF 70W TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
THEN SHIFT S TO 28N THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF
THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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