[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N72W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W HAITI TO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
12N74W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 67W-75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 8N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N25W 6N35W 7N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 27W-35W...FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 35W-46W...AND 2N-7N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF E OF 94W INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0900 UTC DRAPES ACROSS THE N
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR
KEY TO APALACHICOLA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N89W
CONTINUING INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM S OF THE
FRONT E OF 90W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR
25N89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S
THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE
LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N
SUN THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA SUN THEN SHIFT MORE W-NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND GULF WATERS S OF 25N LATE MON THROUGH TUE THEN ACROSS THE SW
GULF WED. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE
SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO OVER HONDURAS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS
DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THAT AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N90W
THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY THEN ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF
HAITI LATER THIS MORNING AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT WILL
REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W MOVES E
TOWARD THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 15/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N69W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N78W OVER FLORIDA NEAR
CAPE CANAVERAL THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N62W PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 25N74W TO 31N65W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
TO THE S OF THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N42W AND WITH A WEAK
RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. THE
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF SAHARAN
DUST COVERING THE ATLC MAINLY BETWEEN 10N-20N FROM AFRICA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SW ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING ACROSS STRAITS OF
FLORIDA SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE E-SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT E-SE AND
EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA MON THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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