[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N69W
TO 09N70W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED MOISTURE UP TO 23N ON THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AT 16N88W TO S OF EL SALVADOR AT 10N90W MOVING WNW AT
15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND
NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 08N22W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N22W TO 06N30W TO 06N47W TO THE COAST OF
FRENCH GUIANA AT 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 34W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE
TO PANAMA CITY MOVING SW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
N FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 5-15
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHTEST WINDS
OVER THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N102W WHERE DIFFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
HIGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 75W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS.... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES
TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

HAITI PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN THE NEXT SIX
HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 24N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTERED IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. THREE OTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 30N56W...AT 30N40W...AND AT 22N34W. EACH
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240
NM E OF THEIR CENTERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO THE N BAHAMAS WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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