[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG
62W/65W AT 14/0000 UTC HAS BEEN RELOCATED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS TO THE WEST
OF A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
AND THE MODEL INITIALIZATION. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS
0.21 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...
MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IS ALONG COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN
COSTA RICA AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. EARLIER NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...NOW
IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF
GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N21W TO 4N26W AND 4N32W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 28W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W...
AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 52W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
100W IN MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N84W ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO
28N50W 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W...TOWARD
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED FROM GALVESTON TO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SUGARLAND. THE VISIBILITY
AT SUGARLAND IS ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG.
THE VISIBILITY AT ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON IS
2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. THE VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED TO 4 MILES AT BAY CITY. EARLIER
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR
LESS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE ROCKPORT
TEXAS AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS OBSERVED IN FALFURRIAS. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL ALABAMA. RAIN ALSO
IS REPORTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. VALPARAISO IN FLORIDA
IS REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN APALACHICOLA...AND
AT THE PUBLIC USE AIRPORTS IN FORT MYERS AND
IN SAINT PETERSBURG IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS OCCURRING
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 3N
TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...
AND IN THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
72W AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG
62W/65W AT 14/0000 UTC HAS BEEN RELOCATED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS TO THE WEST
OF A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
AND THE MODEL INITIALIZATION. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS
0.21 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN A RIDGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR MORE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST. THE SAME MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
THE AREA WILL BE IN A RIDGE/AN AREA OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS
PASSING ON TOP OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVENTUALLY REACHES HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE
48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE 250 MB PATTERN CONSISTS
OF A RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
31N40W TO 20N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO
28N50W 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W...TOWARD
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM
12N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 21N
TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE
BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 22N TO THE EAST
OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
72W AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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