[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO
09N62W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED MOISTURE UP TO 20N ON THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N83W TO
06N84W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 05N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT
08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 95W S OF 29N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF W
CUBA NEAR 24N84W WHERE DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N106W WHERE
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
GEORGIA TO DIP OVER N FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT S. MOREOVER EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER
THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL CUBA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES E TO THE N BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE WESTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 73W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE LOW OFF
THE COAST OF W CUBA. FOUR OTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 28N61W...AT 24N46W...AT
31N37W...AND AT 25N23W. EACH UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THEIR CENTERS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W TO
HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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