[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN TRADEWIND
FLOW. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS PANAMA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N20W TO 6N22W 5N34W 3N45W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
46W AND 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W...FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W
AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 34W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N99W IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
29N71W 27N78W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TO
25N82W...AND 24N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N
TO 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER
FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD...ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE COAST OF CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N33W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N43W...TO 28N57W
25N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
IN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N87W...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN ALICE TEXAS AND IN
BEAUMONT. THE VISIBILITY OF PANAMA CITY BEACH
FLORIDA IS ONE MILE OR LOWER WITH FOG. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS SARASOTA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE ICAO STATIONS KMDJ AND KEIR ARE REPORTING
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR
29N66W TO 25N65W TO 22N64W...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N83W
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 59W
AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 10N84W IN COSTA RICA
BEYOND 9N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N
10N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR
29N66W TO 25N65W TO 22N64W...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N83W
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 59W
AND 70W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF A RIDGE
THAT RUNS ROUGHLY FROM EAST TO WEST. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N12W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 29N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N30W
TO 30N39W AND 28N47W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N47W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N50W AND 15N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W
AND 55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...
TO 30N33W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N43W...TO 28N57W 25N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...
TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N35W 22N45W 19N62W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS...WITH A 31N72W 30N75W 29N81W COLD FRONT...
TO THE NORTH OF 29.5N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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