[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO
04N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED MOISTURE UP TO 18N ON THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO
04N81W MOVING W AT 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 76W-85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W TO 10N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N19W TO 07N30W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF N
BRAZIL AT 07N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 15W-24W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-
10N BETWEE 54W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N87W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO CENTRAL TEXAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF...10-15 KT
SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF 94W FROM 20N-29N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER S FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N101W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THERE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND BE OVER S FLORIDA. MOREOVER EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OF COSTA
RICA. FURTHER N...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM HONDURAS TO
GUATEMALA...AND OVER E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE
OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER CUBA...FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP S OF HISPANIOLA...FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

HISPANIOLA...

HAITI PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS SHOWERS. EXPECT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL E OF THE BAHAMAS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-28N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND E OF THE GREATER ANTILLES DUE
TO A TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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