[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ITCZ IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
47W AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS PANAMA TOWARD THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 76W AND 83W JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N79W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N81W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU...NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W
AND 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 9N23W...TO 7N30W 5N40W
AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE LINE 4N2W 4N6W 4N10W 6N16W 9N19W
11N20W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...AND FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS MEXICO FROM 22N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO AND COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 102W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N81W
IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W 27N86W
BEYOND 31N96W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
93W/94W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 22N IN CUBA
TO 28N IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO 26N92W...
TO 22N98W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING IN PORT LAVACA.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS OF ALICE AND FALFURRIAS.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
GULF SHORES ALABAMA. LIGHT RAIN AND FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
PENSACOLA FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. THE VISIBILITY IS 3 MILES OR LOWER
WITH FOG IN PERRY FLORIDA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING
IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KMDJ AND KDLP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N72W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 24N77W 29N76W BEYOND
32N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 82W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W
OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 73W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...
IS 0.29 INCHES IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N82W BEYOND
9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF PANAMA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE
79W/80W TROPICAL WAVE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W
AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W
AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N72W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 24N77W 29N76W BEYOND
32N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 82W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W
OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL AND THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOW
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF A RIDGE.
A 250 MB TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE TIME PERIOD. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM
A 32N3W MOROCCO/ALGERIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO A 27N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N22W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...
TO 30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N41W...TO 30N55W 27N72W...TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM
18N35W TO 21N45W TO 16N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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