[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N43W TO 02N44W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED
MOISTURE UP TO 14N ON THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 40W-43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N74W TO 04N75W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. A 1008 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 69W-74W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N15W TO 09N18W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N18W TO 04N30W TO 03N40W TO THE COAST OF N
BRAZIL AT 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W-28W.MAP IS OUT

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N85W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E TEXAS NEAR 31N97W. A SURFACE
TROUGH THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM NAPLES FLORIDA AT 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT
22N85W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF...10-15 KT SE
SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION W OF 95W FROM 19N-27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 23N104W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
W GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
89W WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER AIR MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH
TO MOVE S TO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE NE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOSTLY S OF 29N. MOREOVER EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 9N BETWEEN 76W-82W.  ISOLATED
MODEERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S NICARAGUA S OF 13N. A TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDS OVER N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR
23N71W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W N OF 15N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

HAITI PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS TO MOVE NE TO 25N70W WITH THE
NET RESULT OF LITTLE CHANGE FOR HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N39W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
22N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 37W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOWS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net