[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N38W
8N39W 4N39W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN
34W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N.
THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA...INTO
EASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IN CLUSTERS IS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W
IN VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N78W TO 24N79W AND COASTAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 22N TO 28N BETWEEN
76W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 10N20W AND 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N22W TO 5N28W 4N37W AND 3N46W...INTO NORTH-
ESTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W...AND TO THE BRAZIL BORDER
WITH SURINAME NEAR 2N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W
AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N...WITH A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N103W IN MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W...TO 28N89W...AND TO
31N88W IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N91.5W OFF THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N32W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N54W...TO BERMUDA...
TO 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N84W...TO 28N91W...INTO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MCALLEN.
A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATIONS IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...
AND AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS.
MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...
IN BILOXI AND PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN
MOBILE ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF DESTIN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KGVX OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...KHQI...AND AT KDLP
OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KCRH. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W TO 28N73W...TO A 25N74W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 73W OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...COVERING
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...
IS 0.29 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG
10N ACROSS COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N86W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W.
THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA...
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...AND EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W
AND 78W. EXPECT THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS
TO BE NEAR 13N77W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W TO 28N73W...TO A 25N74W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 73W OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT 500 MB. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE/SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A 250 MB TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM
A 30N11W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N25W...
TO 29N40W...TO A 22N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 22N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N32W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N54W...TO BERMUDA...
TO 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N84W...TO 28N91W...INTO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 45W...AND FROM 13N
TO 16N TO THE WEST OF 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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