[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Jun 9 18:50:27 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 092350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 27W/28W FROM 4N-
11N MOVING SW NEAR 25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS DISRUPTING THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ. WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
12N BETWEEN 50W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W ATLC ALONG 70W/71W S OF 25N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA TO 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING ALONG 7N20W TO 5N27W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N30W CONTINUING ALONG 4N37W
2N47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N E
OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-25W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE GULF EXTENDING OVER
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT W OF THE RIDGE AXIS GIVING THE GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 90W-95W...N OF 28N
TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS...AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W-95W. A SEABREEZE OVER FLORIDA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE
W COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO CEDAR KEY CONTINUING N INTO SE
GEORGIA. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E
GULF. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E GULF S OF 28N BETWEEN
84W-90W GIVING THAT AREA HAZY CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUE THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S
WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S TO E PANAMA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES...ONE THAT COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND THAT EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 11N82W ACROSS
COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-84W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA AND JAMAICA TODAY. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-16N
E OF 67W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA EARLY ON
MON. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND
OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE ISLAND AND THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W
FURTHER ENHANCING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON MON AND TUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N74W IN THE W ATLC. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS N TO
31N69W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N15W
ALONG 27N41W TO A AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N52W EFFECTIVELY SPLITTING
THE ATLC WITH E/W UPPER RIDGES N AND S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N46W AND EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TROUGH MON
NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES S FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH TUE THEN WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SLIGHTLY
S WED AND THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PORTION
THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N77W TO NE FLORIDA BY
LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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