[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N27W TO 11N25W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND COINCIDES
WITH A WEAK GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH. ALSO...AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 09/1050 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC TURNING
IN THE WIND RETRIEVALS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 08N26W TO 10N30W TO 08N33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N57W TO 09N57W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 52W-59W WITH AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 50W-
61W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N69W TO 25N67W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 64W-71W...AND FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N21W TO 07N27W TO 04N42W TO 06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 08W-15W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CURRENTLY WITH AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM OVER NW IOWA TO OVER EAST TEXAS TO A BASE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N102W. WHILE S-SE SURFACE WINDS
DOMINATE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY...AND LIGHTNING DATA IS OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGING...AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES W OF 75W. THE SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS ARE KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 12N W OF 76W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED
ALONG 10N IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W AND IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRIMARILY E OF 75W.
INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE...HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. A
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO SKIRT NORTH OF EASTERN HISPANOLA IN
THE VICINITY OF 29N69W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N
OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-72W. WITH ONE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTH OF
THE BASIN...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN LESSER
ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ISLAND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE ISLAND. AS THE WAVE SKIRTS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N73W ARE
PROVIDING AMPLE CONDITIONS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SNYOPTIC
PATTERN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD NEAR 30N77W. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE PROVIDING THE SW NORTH NORTH ATLC WITH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N79W TO
33N78W TO BEYOND 35N74W. THE CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SPANNING ALMOST THE
ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N47W. VERY LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED
WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE
TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 69W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MOVING W-NW TOWARDS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EVENTUALLY THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THESE AREAS WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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